A newly identified COVID-19 variant is emerging across several U.S. states, raising concerns among health experts about its potential to bypass existing immunity from vaccines and prior infections.
What is BA.3.2?
The variant, known as BA.3.2, carries specific mutations that may reduce the effectiveness of immune protection built from earlier COVID-19 exposure or vaccination. Health authorities, including the CDC, are closely monitoring its behavior and spread.
Why it matters
The ability of this variant to partially evade immunity could lead to increased transmission, even among populations that were previously considered protected. This makes it particularly important for public health surveillance and response efforts.
Timeline of emergence
BA.3.2 was first identified in South Africa in 2024. A noticeable surge in cases linked to this variant began around September 2025. By June 2025, it had already reached the United States.
As of February 11, 2026, the variant has been detected in 23 countries worldwide. Within the U.S., evidence of BA.3.2 has been found through various monitoring methods, including:
- Nasal swabs from international travelers
- Wastewater samples from airplanes
- Clinical testing of patients
- Wastewater surveillance across 25 states, totaling over 130 samples
Where it has spread in the U.S.
Wastewater analysis—a key early detection tool—has identified the presence of BA.3.2 in multiple states, including California, Florida, New York, Texas, and Virginia, among others.
Additionally, respiratory samples collected at major travel hubs like San Francisco International Airport and Washington Dulles International Airport have confirmed its presence, suggesting ongoing international transmission.
A broader concern: undercounted COVID-19 deaths
The emergence of this variant coincides with new research indicating that the true death toll from the early stages of the pandemic may have been significantly underestimated in the United States.
Official records show approximately 840,000 COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021. However, researchers using artificial intelligence models estimate that an additional 155,000 deaths may have gone unrecorded—many occurring outside hospital settings. This suggests that roughly 1 in 6 COVID-related deaths during that period may not have been counted.
Who was most affected?
The study highlights disparities in the early impact of the pandemic. Undiagnosed deaths were more common among Hispanic communities and other people of color, particularly in the early months of the outbreak. Certain regions in the South and Southwest—such as Alabama, Oklahoma, and South Carolina—were disproportionately affected.
The bigger picture
Since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, the CDC reports over 1.2 million COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., with the majority occurring in the first two years.
The appearance of variants like BA.3.2 serves as a reminder that the virus continues to evolve—and that tracking, transparency, and preparedness remain essential in managing its long-term impact.
